← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Water AlliesTier 3
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
decks
3
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
8-12-1
overall winrate
40.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1274
· median 1234
· range 1222–1366
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1194
Q3 1419
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.6% | -17.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
